引用本文:殷佳敏,谢宁,王承民,赵鹏臻,范春菊.基于分形理论的新型电力系统规划场景生成方法[J].电力自动化设备,2024,44(7):94-100,188
YIN Jiamin,XIE Ning,WANG Chengmin,ZHAO Pengzhen,FAN Chunju.Generation method of planning scenario for new power system based on fractal theory[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2024,44(7):94-100,188
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基于分形理论的新型电力系统规划场景生成方法
殷佳敏, 谢宁, 王承民, 赵鹏臻, 范春菊
上海交通大学 电子信息与电气工程学院,上海 200240
摘要:
新型电力系统中的新能源占比不断提高,源荷不确定性使得新型电力系统的规划边界难以确定,因此有必要提出适应新型电力系统的规划场景生成方法。分析净负荷数据的分形特征,并提出规划场景生成方法的总体框架;在提出净负荷时间序列盒维数计算方法的基础上,利用盒维数的时移不变性提出规划场景初始点的预测方法;对分形插值算法进行细化,并提出基于初始点的规划场景生成方法。以某地区实际净负荷数据为例进行分析,验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。
关键词:  新型电力系统  典型场景  规划场景  分形插值参数  负荷预测
DOI:10.16081/j.epae.202404010
分类号:TM715
基金项目:
Generation method of planning scenario for new power system based on fractal theory
YIN Jiamin, XIE Ning, WANG Chengmin, ZHAO Pengzhen, FAN Chunju
School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Abstract:
The proportion of new energy in new power system is continuously increasing, and the uncertainty of source and load makes it difficult to determine the planning boundaries of new power system, so it is necessary to propose a generation method of planning scenario adapting to new power system. The fractal characteristics of net load data are analyzed, and an overall framework of generation method for planning scenario is proposed. On the basis of proposing a box dimension calculation method for net load time series, a forecasting method for the initial point of planning scenario is proposed using the time-shift invariance of box dimension. The fractal interpolation algorithm is refined, and a generation method of planning scenario based on the initial point is proposed. The actual net load data of a certain area is taken as an example for analysis, which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.
Key words:  new power system  typical scenario  planning scenario  fractal interpolation parameter  load forecasting

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