| 引用本文: | 李如琦,唐林权,凌武能,李芝荣,王维志.基于云理论和前景理论的变压器状态维修风险决策[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(2): |
| LI Ruqi,TANG Linquan,LING Wuneng,LI Zhirong,WANG Weizhi.Risk decision-making based on cloud theory and prospect theory for conditional maintenance of power transformer[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(2): |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对变压器状态维修决策中具有自然语言型评价信息的问题，提出了基于云理论和前景理论的变压器状态维修策略综合评价模型。由技术性指标、经济性指标、安全性指标构成了变压器维修综合评价指标体系。利用云理论表示自然语言型评价信息，实现了定性概念向定量表示的合理转换。在此基础上，应用理想解法求出正（负）理想解方案作为变压器状态维修策略的参考点；利用灰关联分析法构建正（负）关联系数矩阵；基于前景理论及其正负前景价值函数构建了正（负）前景价值矩阵和方案综合前景值最大化的模型，求解得出最优权重；对计算出的最大综合前景值进行分析，最终确定变压器状态维修策略。实例验证了该算法的可行性与有效性，且模型的灵敏度较传统方法高。 |
| 关键词: 变压器 状态维修 云理论 前景理论 灵敏度分析 风险 决策 |
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| Risk decision-making based on cloud theory and prospect theory for conditional maintenance of power transformer |
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LI Ruqi, TANG Linquan, LING Wuneng, LI Zhirong, WANG Weizhi
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School of Electrical Engineering，Guangxi University，Nanning 530004，China
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| Abstract: |
| As there is linguistic evaluation information in the decision-making of conditional maintenance for power transformer，a comprehensive evaluation model based on the cloud theory and prospect theory is proposed for it. Its comprehensive evaluation system includes the technological index，economic index and safety index. The cloud theory is used to represent the linguistic evaluation information，which realizes the reasonable transformation from qualitative concept to quantitative indication. TOPSIS is used to obtain the positive（negative） ideal scheme as its reference and the gray relation analysis is used to establish the positive（negative） correlation coefficient matrix. The positive（negative） ideal prospect value matrix and the model with the maximum comprehensive prospect value are built based on the prospect theory and its positive（negative） prospect value function，and its optimal weight vector is solved. The calculated maximum comprehensive prospect value is analyzed and the conditional maintenance policy of power transformer is determined. Case study verifies its feasibility and effectiveness and shows its higher sensitivity. |
| Key words: power transformers conditional maintenance cloud theory prospect theory sensitivity analysis risks decision making |
