| 引用本文: | 陈骥群,赵书强,马燕峰,胡永强.贝叶斯网络法与盲数相结合的配电网可靠性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6): |
| CHEN Jiqun,ZHAO Shuqiang,MA Yanfeng,HU Yongqiang.Distribution network reliability assessment based on Bayesian network and blind number[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6): |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对可靠性评估过程中原始参数具有多种不确定性的问题，提出一种基于贝叶斯网络法与盲数相结合的配电网可靠性评估的方法。该方法用盲数理论处理原始参数的不确定性，可靠性参数及指标均为盲数形式。与常规可靠性评估方法相比，该方法在简化盲数计算的情况下得到负荷与系统可靠性指标的范围及对应的可信度，结果反映出参数不确定性对可靠性指标的综合影响，并利用贝叶斯网络特有的双向推理模式，辨识出网络的薄弱环节。算例分析验证了该方法的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 配电 可靠性 评估 贝叶斯网络 盲数 不确定性 |
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| Distribution network reliability assessment based on Bayesian network and blind number |
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CHEN Jiqun, ZHAO Shuqiang, MA Yanfeng, HU Yongqiang
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School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering，North China Electric Power University，Baoding 071003，China
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| Abstract: |
| Aiming at the original parameter uncertainty of reliability assessment，a distribution network reliability assessment method based on Bayesian network method and blind number is proposed，which adopts the blind number theory to deal with the original parameter uncertainty and takes the reliability parameters and indices as blind numbers. Compared with the conventional reliability assessment methods，the proposed method can obtain the range of load or system reliability index and the corresponding credibility by the simplified blind number calculation to reflect the comprehensive influence of parameter uncertainty on the reliability index，and can also identify the weak parts of distribution network by the specific bi-direction reasoning of Bayesian network. Case analysis verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Key words: electric power distribution reliability assessment Bayesian network blind number uncertainty |
