| 引用本文: | 丁 明,楚明娟,毕 锐,石文辉.基于序贯蒙特卡洛随机生产模拟的风电接纳能力评价方法及应用[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(9): |
| DING Ming,CHU Mingjuan,BI Rui,SHI Wenhui.Wind power accommodation capability evaluation based on sequential Monte Carlo probabilistic production simulation and its application[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(9): |
|
| 摘要: |
| 针对风电并入电网系统运行状况的变化，提出了基于序贯蒙特卡洛仿真的随机生产模拟滚动试探算法并应用于实际工程。该方法计及元件强迫停运、机组启停限制、运行经济性、系统供热期与非供热期、风电出力波动性、时序性等因素，将多时段优先顺序法融入计算体系，算法除提供传统经济性和可靠性指标外，新增了调峰不足系数、弃风率等调峰评价指标。对我国东北某省级电网实际数据进行计算分析，比较了风电并网前后对技术经济指标及火电机组运行的影响，重点评估了强化系统约束、不同计算时间粒度对调峰评价指标的影响，详细分析了每日各时段的全年平均的弃风差异及原因，验证了所提方法的合理性和工程应用价值。 |
| 关键词: 序贯蒙特卡洛 随机生产模拟 风电 接纳能力 多时段优先顺序法 调峰不足系数 弃风分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家电网公司科技项目（NYB201400091） |
|
| Wind power accommodation capability evaluation based on sequential Monte Carlo probabilistic production simulation and its application |
|
DING Ming1, CHU Mingjuan1, BI Rui1, SHI Wenhui2
|
|
1.Anhui Key Lab of New Energy Utilization and Energy Conservation，Hefei University of Technology，Hefei 230009，China;2.China Electric Power Research Institute，Beijing 100192，China
|
| Abstract: |
| For the changed operating conditions of power system with wind farms，a scrolling heuristic algorithm based on sequential Monte Carlo probabilistic production simulation is proposed and applied to a practical project，which considers more factors，such as forced element outage，unit startup-shutdown constraints，economic operation，heating period，wind power output sequence and fluctuation，etc.，integrates the multi-period priorities method into the computing system，and provides not only the traditional economy and reliability indexes but also some peak regulation evaluation indexes，such as insufficient peak regulation coefficient，wind abandoning rate，etc. Calculation and analysis are carried out based on the actual data of a provincial power grid in Northeast China，the influence of grid-connected wind farms on the technical and economic indexes and the operation of thermal power units are discussed，the effects of system constraint strengthening and computing interval on the peak regulation evaluation indexes are emphatically evaluated，the difference among the annual averages of hourly wind abandoning and corresponding reasons are analyzed in detail，and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified. |
| Key words: sequential Monte Carlo probabilistic production simulation wind power accommodation capacity multi-period priorities method insufficient peak regulation coefficient wind abandoning analysis |
