| 引用本文: | 赵洪山,林诗雨,曲岳晗,杨澳,常杰英.考虑极端天气冲击过程的风电机组竞争失效可靠性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2024,44(4):40-47 |
| ZHAO Hongshan,LIN Shiyu,QU Yuehan,YANG Ao,CHANG Jieying.Reliability evaluation of wind turbine competitive failure considering extreme weather impact process[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2024,44(4):40-47 |
|
| 摘要: |
| 针对风电机组的运行可靠性易受极端天气影响的问题，提出了一种考虑极端天气冲击过程的风电机组竞争失效可靠性评估方法。同时考虑风电机组自然退化、极端天气冲击导致的瞬时退化以及极端天气持续过程产生的加速退化，构建极端天气下的风电机组综合退化模型；考虑风电机组退化过程对其耐冲击性能的影响，建立风电机组竞争失效可靠度模型以评估风电机组可靠性；基于我国北方某风电场工程数据和极端天气历史数据评估了某2 MW风电机组的可靠性并进行了参数灵敏度分析。结果显示，到第5年时，仅考虑自然退化的方法评估风电机组可靠度为0.84，而考虑极端天气冲击过程的方法评估风电机组可靠度为0.178，后者更加符合工程实际。通过模型参数的灵敏度分析发现，运行时间超过3年后，退化失效开始逐渐影响风电机组的可靠性。 |
| 关键词: 风电 风电机组可靠性评估 极端天气冲击 冲击持续过程 竞争失效 硬失效阈值退化 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202310025 |
| 分类号:TM315 |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Reliability evaluation of wind turbine competitive failure considering extreme weather impact process |
|
ZHAO Hongshan, LIN Shiyu, QU Yuehan, YANG Ao, CHANG Jieying
|
|
School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
|
| Abstract: |
| Aiming at the problem that the operation reliability of wind turbines is easily affected by extreme weather, a reliability evaluation method of competitive failure of wind turbines considering the process of extreme weather impact is proposed. Considering the natural degradation of wind turbines, the instantaneous degradation caused by extreme weather impact and the accelerated degradation caused by the continuous process of extreme weather, a comprehensive degradation model of wind turbines under extreme weather is constructed. Considering the influence of wind turbine degradation process on its impact resistance ability, a competitive failure model of wind turbine is established to evaluate the reliability of wind turbine. Based on the engineering data of a wind farm in northern China and the historical data of extreme weather, the reliability of a 2 MW wind turbine is evaluated and the parameter sensitivity is analyzed. The results show that by the fifth year, the reliability of wind turbine is 0.84 by considering only natural degradation, and 0.178 by considering extreme weather impact process, which is more in line with engineering practice. Through the sensitivity analysis of model parameters, it is found that after the operation time exceeds 3 years, the degradation failure begins to gradually affect the reliability of wind turbines. |
| Key words: wind power wind turbine reliability evaluation extreme weather impact impact duration process competition failure hard failure threshold drops |
