| 引用本文: | 王士兴,陈树恒,刘群英,韩杨,CHEN Zhe,胡维昊.基于高斯混合随机性模型的多风电场配电网概率潮流计算[J].电力自动化设备,2022,42(11): |
| WANG Shixing,CHEN Shuheng,LIU Qunying,HAN Yang,CHEN Zhe,HU Weihao.Probabilistic power flow calculation of distribution network with multiple wind farms based on Gaussian mixture random model[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2022,42(11): |
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| 摘要: |
| 风速的随机性及风电场之间的相关性对电力系统潮流分析具有重要影响。计及风速的随机性及多风电场之间的相关性，提出一种改进的概率潮流计算方法。基于多风电场实际出力样本数据，利用k-means算法确定高斯混合模型的参数数量，并利用数据筛选过程改进高斯混合模型以提高联合分布模型的精确度；引入基于Nataf估算变换的三点估计法对所建概率分布模型进行采样，并将采样数据与电力系统潮流平衡方程结合以实现概率潮流计算。IEEE 18节点系统的算例结果表明，所提方法具有较高的计算精度和计算效率。 |
| 关键词: 高斯混合模型 k-means算法 Nataf变换 三点估计法 概率潮流 |
| DOI：10.16081/j.epae.202205036 |
| 分类号:TM614 |
| 基金项目:国家重大研发计划项目(2018YFE0127600) |
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| Probabilistic power flow calculation of distribution network with multiple wind farms based on Gaussian mixture random model |
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WANG Shixing1, CHEN Shuheng1, LIU Qunying2, HAN Yang1, CHEN Zhe3, HU Weihao1
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1.School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China;2.School of Automation Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China;3.Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, Aalborg 9220, Danmark
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| Abstract: |
| The power flow analysis of power system is significantly affected by the randomness of wind speed and the correlation between wind farms. An improved probabilistic power flow calculation method is proposed considering the randomness of wind speed and the correlation between multiple wind farms. Based on the actual output sample data of multiple wind farms, k-means algorithm is used to determine the number of parameters of Gaussian mixture model, and the data selection process is used to improve Gaussian mixture model for improving the accuracy of joint distribution model. A three-point estimation method based on Nataf evaluation transformation is introduced for sampling of the built probabilistic distribution model, and the sampling data and power flow balance equations of power system are combined to realize probabilistic power flow calculation. The case results of IEEE 18-bus system show that the proposed method has high calculation precision and efficiency. |
| Key words: Gaussian mixture model k-means algorithm Nataf transformation three-point estimation method probabilistic power flow |
